Did I miss when Ryan Howard became a free agent.

Ryan Howard just signed a 3 year $54 million contract. That is an average salary of $18 million per year. Ryan Howard had two arbitration years left. Am I missing something here; perhaps Howard having photos of Ruben Amaro Jr. with a male prostitute?


The arbitration process is meant to limit player compensation before free agency, with the player getting approximately 40% of his value in year one 60% in year two and 80% in year three. Using that guide the Phillies are paying Howard the equivalent of $45 million dollars in 2009. The deal looks slightly better if we take it as a whole with players in arbitration usually taking a 10% discount on long term deals. That makes this deal equivalent to $20 million per year, now that doesn't' quite sound as bad.


The problem is that according to FanGraphs Ryan Howard has been worth over $20 million just once in his career and that was back in 2006. In 2007 Howard was worth $17 million, and last year he was worth $14 million. You don't have to be a Harvard grad to see this trend is heading in the wrong direction. All of Howard's relevant production stats are going down. His OPS + has gone fro 167 to 144 to 124 during that span, while his OBP has dropped from 425 to 392 to 339. At his peak as a 26 year old superstar with power and patience, but no defensive value Howard was possibly worth $18 million a year. Now two years into his decline phase Howard is a one dimensional slugger whose failure to make consistent contact raises concern.


Pat Burrell is getting less for two years than Ryan Howard is getting per year, and Burrell was worth the same as Howard last year. Over the next 3 years the Phillies will be paying Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez a combined $28 million a year. This is a bad deal for the Phillies, their payroll has now soared above $100 million when many other teams have started to cut back. The Phillies still don't have a third basemen and strong back of the rotation, or an A-list outfielder, and over the next few years with most other teams having more financial flexibility there is no reason to think they will be acquiring one.